Brent Crude Approaches Seventy Dollars on Geopolitical Risk Premiums

The 2026 Supply Glut

Without a physical disruption, Brent is expected to average just $57 in 2026 as global production increases by 2.1 million bpd while demand growth lags at only 800k bpd. This massive 2 million barrel surplus is currently the primary ceiling for prices.

Venezuelan Sanction Static

The forecast assumes US sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027. Any easing of these restrictions by the US administration would add further heavy crude to the market, potentially pushing Brent into the mid-$50s.