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Brent Crude Breaks Seventy Dollar Barrier on Escalating Shipping Insurance Costs

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Published: February 19, 2026

The 2026 Supply Overhang

Despite the current rally, the IEA warns of a 1.4 million bpd surplus for the full year 2026. This fundamental weight is expected to cap any rally above $75 unless a physical supply shut-in occurs in the Middle East.

Refinery Demand

Strong demand from Asian refiners—now returning to full operations—is providing a solid floor for Brent, as they scramble to secure March and April cargoes to meet recovering industrial fuel needs.