Brent Crude Breaks Seventy Dollars on Heightened Shipping Insurance Costs

War Premium vs Global Surplus

Analysts warn that while the war premium is supporting prices now, the underlying fundamental remains bearish. Without a physical supply shut-in, the 1.4 million bpd surplus expected in 2026 will eventually cap any rally.

OPEC Discipline

OPEC+ members have signaled they are comfortable with prices in the $70 range and are unlikely to adjust production targets before their March meeting, prioritizing price stability over market share.