Shipping and Logistics Risks
Global commodities traders Trafigura and Vitol have reached agreements with the U.S. to market Venezuelan crude, but prompt deliveries remain complicated by regional unrest. Brent is increasingly acting as a barometer for geopolitical friction rather than fundamental demand.
2026 Oversupply Outlook
Despite the daily spikes, Goldman Sachs warns that Brent will average near $56 in 2026 due to a projected 2.3 million barrel per day global surplus. The 'supply wave' from the U.S., Guyana, and a recovered Venezuela remains the primary long-term threat.