Heavier Grade Supply Pressure
Venezuela is a critical source of heavy sour crude. With infrastructure needing major repairs, the temporary loss of these barrels is forcing refiners in Asia to seek alternatives, pushing Brent-linked grades higher in the prompt market.
Market Rebalancing
World Bank forecasts suggest Brent will average $58-$62/bbl throughout 2026. While geopolitical shocks cause short-term spikes, the consensus is that weak global growth will limit appreciation above $70.