Heavier Grade Supply Pressure
Venezuela is a key source of heavy sour crude. With U.S. sanctions remaining in place and infrastructure needing major repairs, the temporary loss of these barrels is forcing refiners in Asia to seek more expensive alternatives, pushing Brent-linked grades higher in the prompt market.
Market Rebalancing
World Bank forecasts suggest Brent will average $60/bbl throughout 2026. While geopolitical shocks can cause short-term spikes, the prevailing consensus is that weak global economic growth will keep a lid on sustained price appreciation above $70.