Logistics and Sanctions Pressure
The tightening of US sanctions on tankers operating in the Venezuelan sector has created a localized shortage of heavy sour crude, pushing refiners to bid up the price of Brent-linked grades. This logistical tension is currently the primary counterweight to soft global demand signals.
The 2026 Surplus Forecast
Major energy agencies maintain that global oil inventories will rise significantly throughout 2026. Brent is expected to average near $55 per barrel in the coming months as the surplus narrative eventually overcomes the current geopolitical noise.