Brent Crude Holds Above Sixty Two Dollars on Supply Friction

Supply Chain Vulnerability

Recent attacks have damaged two vessels and ignited a fire at a key Russian export corridor. This physical damage serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of global energy flows. Traders are pricing in a 'friction premium' to account for the increased cost and risk of shipping crude in these contested waters.

Long Term Outlook

Despite the current rally, the long-term forecast remains bearish. Trading Economics models project Brent to trade around $62.51 in 12 months, suggesting that upside potential is limited by the looming non-OPEC supply glut expected in 2026.