Brent Crude Holds Sixty One Dollars Amidst Russian Infrastructure Strikes

Infrastructure at Risk

Kyiv recently struck the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, a vital fuel supplier for Russian forces. These targeted attacks on refining and port infrastructure along the Black Sea have introduced a 'friction premium' that is keeping Brent slightly elevated compared to its fundamental value in an oversupplied market.

Oversupply Outlook

Looking toward 2026, major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are forecasting Brent to average in the mid-$50s. The relentless growth of non-OPEC supply remains the primary headwind, as the market expects a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day to build throughout the coming year.