OPEC Plus and 2026 Supply Wave
OPEC+ has reaffirmed plans to keep production levels steady through March. However, the anticipated surge in production from non-OPEC nations like Brazil and Guyana later in the year remains the primary bearish headwind for Brent prices.
Refinery Demand and Seasonal Softness
Weak seasonal demand in Europe and cooling industrial output in China are currently tempering the impact of geopolitical news. Analysts project Brent will average $56 for the full year 2026 unless a significant supply shock occurs.