Brent Crude Stabilizes Near Sixty Dollars Amid Sanctions and Global Glut

Blockades and Sanction Risk

Recent US naval interdictions of sanctioned tankers have introduced a temporary friction premium to Brent prices. The UK's decision to sanction 24 more Russian entities, including major oil producers, has also raised concerns about the efficiency of global shipping routes. These geopolitical factors are currently acting as a counterweight to the bearish demand data coming out of Europe.

Long Term Bearish Outlook

Despite the current friction, Brent is expected to average around $58 per barrel in 2026 according to J.P. Morgan. The primary driver of this bearish forecast is the growth in non-OPEC supply and the resilience of the US dollar. Unless OPEC+ implements a drastic change in production policy, the path of least resistance for the global benchmark appears to be sideways to lower.