Logistical Friction
Shipping insurance surcharges for transiting the Red Sea and Persian Gulf have tripled this week. This logistical friction is keeping waterborne crude expensive, even as non-OPEC production from Brazil and Guyana reaches record levels.
Demand Uncertainty
Slowing industrial growth in Germany and France is raising concerns about European fuel demand for Q2. This economic cooling is the primary counterweight to the geopolitical risk currently supporting the Brent price.