Brent Oil Closes Near Sixty Dollars Amidst Mounting Supply Risks

Naval Blockades and Sanctions

Oil prices found minor support this Thursday as investors assessed the risks of a U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers. Analysts at ING suggest the blockade could affect up to 600,000 barrels per day of exports, mostly destined for China. Additionally, Britain has imposed fresh sanctions on 24 Russian entities, including major oil companies Tatneft and Russneft. While these moves create friction in supply, they have yet to spark a major rally due to the overarching global surplus.

Forward Price Forecasts

Despite the geopolitical friction, the long-term outlook for Brent remains bearish. J.P. Morgan has lowered its 2026 Brent price forecast to $58 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs projects a 2026 average of $56. The prevailing view is that non-OPEC supply growth and softening demand from major importers like China will continue to weigh on the international benchmark throughout the next 24 months.