Sanctions and Naval Blockades
The US naval blockade of Venezuela has entered a more aggressive phase, with several tankers seized this week. This friction in global logistics is supporting Brent's prompt-month price, as refiners scramble to replace interrupted heavy crude flows.
The Ukraine Peace Dividend
Countering the geopolitical heat is progress in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. Reports that 90% of terms have been agreed upon suggest that a 'peace dividend' could eventually lead to the unwinding of energy sanctions, further saturating the global market in 2026.