China Steel Prices Consolidate Amid Seasonal Restocking and New Export Rules

Demand Structure Divergence

While construction steel demand has hit a seasonal trough, demand for specialized manufacturing steel (plates and coils) remains resilient. This divergence is keeping composite prices firm, even as the property sector in China continues to show double-digit declines in new starts.

Policy and CBAM Impacts

The new 2026 Chinese export licensing regime and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are the primary long-term headwinds. Analysts expect these to curb outbound volumes, potentially leading to a localized supply build-up unless domestic infrastructure spending accelerates in early Q1.