Chinese Steel Rebar Set to Close Year Down Seven Percent Amid Property Crisis

Domestic Demand Contraction

The primary headwind for steel remains the structural downturn in the Chinese real estate sector. Demand for ferrous metals has been severely hampered by the slow pace of new residential starts. Consequently, total steel output fell by over 10% annually to 70 million tons in November, reflecting mill efforts to manage oversupply and falling margins.

Export Safety Valve and Protectionism

With domestic demand flagging, Chinese mills have surged their exports by 6.7% this year. However, this strategy is facing growing headwinds from protectionist rhetoric in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Beijing has recently signaled capacity limits on finished metal production to combat deflationary risks and avoid worsening trade tensions in 2026.