The One Million Ton Deficit
Analysts project a structural deficit of nearly 1 million metric tons in 2026. Severe supply disruptions in Peru and Chile, combined with a lack of major new mines coming online, are creating a permanent scarcity premium for high-grade cathode.
Tariff Friction
Trade policy uncertainty continues to distort the market. Traders are front-loading shipments to US hubs to avoid potential 2026 import levies, which is artificially tightening supply in Asian and European trading centers.