Gasoline Futures Hit Holiday Lows as Refining Capacity Swells

Refinery Efficiency and Stocks

High refinery runs in the US Gulf Coast and Midwest have led to a steady build-up of gasoline inventories. Because crude oil input costs have also softened throughout the year, refiners have been able to maintain healthy margins while offering lower prices to distributors, contributing to the bearish trend for RBOB futures.

2026 Price Forecast

The EIA anticipates gasoline retail prices will average around $3.00 per gallon in 2026. This forecast is based on the expectation of continued high crude output and the expansion of global refining capacity, which should keep a lid on any major price spikes during the upcoming spring driving season.