Gasoline Futures Pull Back from Monthly Highs on Large Inventory Build

Retail Price Outlook

The EIA projects that U.S. regular retail gasoline will average $2.92 in 2026, providing relief compared to 2025. With oil prices trending toward the $50s, pump prices are expected to remain range-bound between $2.90 and $3.05 for most of the year.

Refinery Capacity and heavy Crude

The resumption of Venezuelan heavy crude exports is expected to benefit US Gulf Coast refiners, increasing the supply of finished fuel and exerting further downward pressure on wholesale RBOB prices throughout Q1 2026.