Refinery Output and Supply
US gasoline inventories increased by nearly 5 million barrels this week as refineries focus on diesel production, resulting in high gasoline byproducts. This supply cushion, combined with low crude oil costs, is keeping wholesale prices depressed despite a minor uptick in holiday travel demand.
2026 Retail Outlook
The AAA national average has dropped to $2.84, with several states seeing prices as low as $2.34. The EIA projects that retail prices will average $3.00 in 2026, as the broader energy complex enters a phase of persistent global oversupply.