Gasoline RBOB Futures Hold Steady as Pump Prices Forecast to Fall

Refinery Margins and Octane Needs

Gasoline prices are heavily correlated with crude oil, which explains nearly 90% of pump price movements. With oil prices trending toward $50, RBOB prices are expected to remain under pressure, even as environmental compliance costs on the West Coast keep regional prices elevated.

Retail Price Outlook

The average US driver is expected to see relief in 2026. After factoring in 10% ethanol blending and retail taxes, most analysts see retail prices stabilizing near $2.93 per gallon, providing a welcome deflationary signal for the transportation sector.