Gasoline RBOB Futures Rebound on Refining Constraints and Geopolitical Risks

Crack Spread Expansion

The 3:2:1 crack spread in the Gulf Coast has expanded to $23.33, indicating rising profitability for refiners. This trend is being driven by higher crude input costs and steady regional demand despite the seasonal driving lull in the Northern Hemisphere.

Retail Price Outlook

The U.S. national average for regular gasoline stands at $2.84, up slightly this week. However, analysts believe that as crude production continues to hit records, pump prices will likely face a downward trend by the second quarter of 2026.