Gasoline Retail Prices Forecasted to Fall Below Three Dollars in 2026

Refinery Output and Inventories

US refineries are maintaining high utilization rates, flooding the domestic market with light ends. This surplus is providing relief for consumers, with national retail averages likely to stay range-bound despite the Venezuela crisis.

Impact of Crude Prices

As oil prices trend toward the mid-$50s, pump prices are expected to follow. The 2026 outlook reflects broader deflation in the energy sector, supported by high refinery efficiency and stable ethanol blending mandates.