Gold Stabilizes Above $4300 Ahead of US Jobs Data

Monetary Policy and Sentiment

The market's focus is shifting from current Federal Reserve stability to the outlook for 2026 rate cuts. Growing expectations for monetary easing are dampening the value of the US dollar and boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold. Analysts suggest that the metal is priced to rise moderately through year-end, targeting the $4,350 to $4,400 range if US economic data signals a sustained slowdown.

Central Bank and Investment Inflows

Official sector demand remains a fundamental pillar of support. Central banks continue to accumulate gold at record or near-record paces, diversifying reserves amid global geopolitical tensions and high sovereign debt levels. This consistent buying provides a firm floor, leading analysts to anticipate gold will post its strongest annual gain since the late 1970s.

Upcoming Data Volatility

Traders are bracing for volatility driven by key US data releases this week, including jobs and retail sales figures. Weaker-than-expected data would increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy, providing an immediate bullish catalyst for gold. Conversely, strong data could trigger a short-term correction.