Natural Gas Prices Crash Twenty Five Percent as Warming Forecasts Emerge

The Widowmaker Trade

The volatility in natural gas continues to live up to its reputation. Massive long liquidations occurred today as weather models abruptly shifted from 'Arctic' to 'Mild' for the mid-February period, erasing the storage draw risk premium.

LNG Export Floor

Despite the crash, record LNG export demand remains the primary structural floor for 2026. US LNG exports are forecast to grow to 16.4 Bcf/d this year, preventing a return to the sub-$2 levels seen in previous years.