The Storage Overhang
US storage levels are currently 14% above the five-year average. Without a significant cold snap to force storage draws, the market is bracing for a massive carryover into the spring injection season, which will likely keep prices capped below $3.50 for the foreseeable future.
LNG Export Performance
The only significant floor is being provided by record LNG export flows to Europe. Feedgas demand at US terminals is currently at 18.1 Bcf/d, providing a structural anchor that is preventing a total collapse to sub-$2 levels.