Natural Gas Tumbles on Warmer Weather and Ample US Storage

Weather Model Flip

After a brief period of cold-driven price spikes, weather models have flipped to a bearish warmer-than-normal outlook for the remainder of 2025. This 'demand destruction' has led to aggressive liquidation of long positions by speculators. Without a sustained freeze, current storage levels are viewed as more than sufficient to handle the remainder of the winter.

LNG Export Capacity Support

The primary support for natural gas remains the record-high flows to US LNG export terminals. As the US maximizes its ability to ship fuel to Europe and Asia, a significant portion of domestic production is being removed from the local market. This structural demand provides a floor that prevents prices from collapsing toward the lows seen in early 2024.