RBOB Gasoline Prices Hit Yearly Lows in Holiday Season Slump

Seasonal Demand and Price Trends

Gasoline RBOB futures have seen a sharp decline through December, settling at $1.70 per gallon. The average price over the last 30 days has been around $1.81, meaning the current spot price is significantly lower than recent norms. This downward trend is welcome news for holiday travelers but reflects a broader industrial slowdown. Market analysts note that since mid-November, gasoline has lost over 15% of its value, driven by high refinery runs and a lack of significant weather disruptions.

Inventory and Market Outlook

Despite the low prices, technical signals remain mixed. While some traders are betting on a bounce back toward $1.90 in early 2026, the immediate inventory situation is ample. US gasoline inventories are healthy, and with crude oil expected to remain in the $50s, there is little cost-push pressure on the horizon. Consumers can expect retail rates to remain depressed through the first quarter of 2026.