Retail Gasoline Prices Hit Seasonal Lows Providing Holiday Relief

Inventory and Refining Output

EIA data shows that gasoline inventories are swelling as refineries maintain high run rates despite a seasonal lull in driving activity. This oversupply is putting downward pressure on retail prices across the country. In some states, particularly in the Gulf Coast, prices have already dropped well below the $2.50 mark.

Market Outlook for 2026

The long-term trend for gasoline remains bearish as vehicle efficiency increases and the broader crude oil market enters a surplus phase. Analysts expect gasoline prices to stay relatively low through the first half of 2026, barring any major refinery outages or significant geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.