Steel Rebar Futures Set for Seven Percent Annual Drop on Soft Demand

Property Sector Drag

The primary headwind for steel remains the structural downturn in Chinese real estate. Despite attempts to support the market, new construction starts remain at multi-year lows. This has suppressed demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil, leading to a build-up in inventories that mills are struggling to clear before the 2026 spring season.

Supply Discipline and 2026 Outlook

Chinese mills have begun to implement voluntary production cuts to protect margins. Analysts expect steel prices to remain under pressure in early 2026 unless more aggressive infrastructure spending is approved. The LME Steel HRC FOB China benchmark is currently trading around $450/ton for Dec 2025, reflecting a cautious global outlook for the sector.