WTI Crude Edges Higher on Fresh Geopolitical Risks in the New Year

Geopolitical Friction Returns

Renewed conflict in Eastern Europe and escalating pressure on Venezuelan exports are tightening the prompt supply of crude. Traders are repositioning as the Trump administration ratchets up sanctions on state-run PDVSA, forcing tankers to seek alternate routes or face seizure.

Supply vs Sentiment

Despite the daily uptick, the market remains shadowed by forecasts of a massive 2026 supply surplus. Record non-OPEC production is expected to add 1 million barrels per day this year, leading many analysts to believe that any price rallies will be short-lived.