WTI Crude Falls on Global Oversupply Narrative

The 2026 Surplus Warning

EIA forecasts suggest WTI will average $52 for the full year 2026, down from $65 in 2025. Record US shale production combined with rising output from OPEC+ and Brazil is expected to overwhelm lackluster global demand growth.

Refinery Reliability Risks

The polar vortex currently affecting parts of the US has introduced localized refinery risks. However, these are being viewed as temporary disruptions in a fundamentally oversupplied global market.