WTI Crude Hits Two Week High on Geopolitical Friction and Tanker Disruptions

Geopolitical Risk Premium

Recent reports of US naval actions against sanctioned tankers and continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have rattled oil markets. While the long-term trend for 2025 has been bearish due to rising non-OPEC supply, these immediate threats to physical flow have forced short-sellers to cover their positions, pushing WTI back toward the $60 pivot point.

Inventory and US Production

Despite the price spike, US crude oil production remains near record highs at 13.8 million barrels per day. The market is currently balanced on a knife-edge between robust domestic supply and the potential for sudden, politically-driven disruptions. Analysts expect high volatility to continue as traders weigh the 2026 surplus forecast against current supply-chain fragility.