WTI Crude Oil Prices Retreat as Geopolitical Risks Soften and Exports Resume

Removal of the War Premium

Softened rhetoric from the White House regarding Iranian civil unrest and the successful resumption of Venezuelan supply under a new 50-million-barrel agreement has removed the immediate geopolitical fear premium. Traders are now refocusing on the fundamental 2026 surplus forecast.

EIA 2026 Forecast

The EIA projects WTI will average $52 in 2026, a significant drop from 2025 levels. Global inventory builds are expected to average 2.8 million barrels per day as production growth from OPEC+ and Brazil outpaces cooling global demand.