Geopolitical Risk Premium
New warnings for merchant vessels near Iranian waters have restored a 'fear premium' to the price. While a global oversupply is forecast for late 2026, the immediate risk of a shipping disruption is keeping prices elevated.
Refining Momentum
High utilization rates at US Gulf Coast refineries are creating a strong pull for domestic barrels. Refiners are maximizing throughput to meet high gasoline blending demand, tightening the prompt physical market.