WTI Crude Prices Steady as Geopolitical Risks Clash with Supply Surplus Forecasts

Naval Tension Premium

New maritime advisories for the Strait of Hormuz have kept a 'fear premium' of $3-$4 per barrel in the price. Without these tensions, WTI would likely be testing lower levels given the robust production from non-OPEC nations.

Inventory Cushion

While recent US stock draws have been supportive, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to increasing output from Brazil and Guyana, which is expected to saturate the Atlantic market by Q3 2026.