Geopolitical Tension
The potential for tanker seizures or boardings is currently outweighing the bearish 2026 surplus narrative. Traders are hedging against a disruption to the 20 million barrels per day that transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Inventory Tightness
A larger-than-expected drawdown in US commercial crude stocks reported earlier this week has tightened the prompt physical market, providing a technical floor for WTI near the $65 level.