WTI Oil Faces Bearish Outlook as Global Inventories Rise

Supply Outpacing Demand

The global oil market is entering 2026 with a projected surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day. Record US production (forecasted at 13.5 million bpd) is overwhelming demand growth, leading many forecasters to call for a long-term average near $59.

Oversupply vs Geopolitical Risk

While the fundamental picture is bearish, risk premiums persist due to naval 'quarantines' on Venezuelan oil and ongoing strikes in Nigeria. However, without a major physical outage, the path of least resistance for WTI appears to be lower.