Site Icon My Commodity News

WTI Oil Faces Pressure as Global Oversupply Narrative Counters War Premium

image-alt-text
Published: January 19, 2026

2026 Surplus Narrative

Global oil production is expected to outpace demand throughout 2026. WTI is projected to average near $55 for the full year as the supply-driven downtrend eventually overcomes seasonal geopolitical risks.

Geopolitical Floor

Tensions in Iran and the Venezuelan transition are preventing a collapse into the low $50s. However, record US production continues to act as the primary ceiling for sustained price appreciation.