WTI Oil Moves Toward Record Levels on Iran Export Risks

The Venezuela Factor

While the US military intervention has stabilized, the logistical handover of PDVSA operations is causing short-term friction. The US expects to reclaim significant heavy sour volumes, but prompt delivery remains constrained.

Medium Term Surplus

Despite current spikes, the EIA warns that a 2026 global surplus of 1.2 million bpd will likely cap rallies. US production is hitting record levels, which is expected to drive prices back toward the mid-$50s by mid-year.