WTI Oil Rallies on Iranian Tensions Despite Bearish Global Surplus Forecast

Geopolitical War Premium

Disagreements over the agenda in US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman have kept headline risks elevated. Traders are hedging against any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would flip the projected 2026 surplus into a catastrophic deficit.

Surplus Reality

The EIA continues to project a significant global supply glut for 2026, with WTI expected to average near $52 long-term. US production remains robust at 13.6 million barrels per day, acting as a ceiling for sustained price rallies.