WTI Oil Slips as Global Oversupply Narrative Counters War Premium

The Surplus Sentiment

Energy analysts warn that the 'war premium' from the Venezuela operation is likely temporary. With global stocks rising and non-OPEC supply growth outstripping demand by nearly 2-to-1, WTI is expected to average in the high $50s unless a major physical supply disruption occurs.

Venezuelan Logistics

The U.S. naval blockade of PDVSA facilities has caused localized logistical friction, but it has not yet impacted global balances significantly. Most refiners have already pivoted to North American heavy crude alternatives, limiting the price impact of the Caribbean blackout.